Iran protest updates – what Aavez has been up to

Recently, the Avaaz community rapidly responded to the election crisis in Iran with an opinion poll to gauge the views of ordinary Iranians, a petition to world leaders to withhold recognition of the new President until the crackdown on protests ceased, and a fundraiser to support technology that would allow Iranians to freely access the internet.

The rapidly deteriorating security situation has made it difficult to conduct the poll (final word on that coming this week), but the technology fundraiser has raised over a hundred thousand dollars to support the best tools for Iranians to access the internet and communicate freely. The situation in Iran remains uncertain, and Avaaz will continue to both support freedom of expression and oppose those who would exploit this crisis to justify military action against Iran.

NZ Parliament passes motion in support of peaceful protest and re-examination of election result in Iran

This afternoon, the New Zealand Parliament unanimously passed the following motion from Green MP, Keith Locke:

That this House expresses its support for all Iranian citizens who strive for a free and democratic society; asks the Iranian government not to use force against peaceful demonstrators; calls for an end to government restrictions on the media; and supports an impartial examination of the recent Iranian election result in the light of widespread concerns.

Keith Locke has a media statement on the Green Party’s website. Good work, and about time.

Chatham House investigation into election results in Iran shows fraud almost certain

Chatham House and the Institute of Iranian Studies at the Unviersity of St Andrews have just published a Preliminary Analysis of the Voting Figures in Iran’s 2009 Presidential Election, which supports the claims of election fraud in Iran.

The report says:

Working from the province by province breakdowns of the 2009 and 2005 results, released by the Iranian Ministry of Interior on the Farsi pages of their website shortly after the election, and from the 2006 census as published by the official Statistical Centre of Iran, the following observations about the official data and the debates surrounding it can be made.

• In two conservative provinces, Mazandaran and Yazd, a turnout of more than 100% was recorded. [Four other regions show a turnout of more than 90%.]
• If Ahmadinejad’s victory was primarily caused by the increase in voter turnout, one would expect the data to show that the provinces where there was the greatest ‘swing’ in support towards Ahmadinejad would also be the provinces with the greatest increase in voter turnout. This is not the case.
• In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, all former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two groups.
• In 2005, as in 2001 and 1997, conservative candidates, and Ahmadinejad in particular, were markedly unpopular in rural areas. That the countryside always votes conservative is a myth. The claim that this year Ahmadinejad swept the board in more rural provinces flies in the face of these trends.

These results are not significantly affected by the statement of the Guardian Council that some voters may have voted outside their home district, thus causing the irregularities highlighted by the defeated Mohsen Rezai. Whilst it is possible for large numbers of voters to cast their ballots outside their home district (one of 366), the proportion of people who would have cast their votes outside their home province is much smaller, as the 30 provinces are too large for effective commuting across borders. In Yazd, for example, where turnout was above 100% at provincial level, there are no significant population centres near provincial boundaries.

The total turnout for these elections was 84 per cent, up from 60 percent and 63 per cent in the 2005 presidential elections, and 68 per cent in the 2001 presidential elections. The highest turnout since 1980 was 79 per cent in 1981, but in the past 10 years it has sat at 60–70 per cent. Now, I don’t know whether there is something special about the Iranian electorate, but I have worked in a couple of elections here in New Zealand, and from that experience and research we did of overseas trends that a jump of more than 20 per cent is virtually unheard of in a country with a well-functioning democracy and generally high turnout, which seems to be the case in Iran. Changes in turnout are normally in the single figures, and normally less than five per cent.

The report highlights some serious anomalies, and strongly supports the claims of the reformist groups.

Something we can do to help our Iranian friends

The situation in Iran is very bad. At the end of last week, it looked like the support for Mousavi might have been strong enough to get rid of Ahmadinejad, but it seems that the election might have been rigged. Our media reported seven people killed and more injured yesterday at a demonstrations. Avaaz.org is trying to mobilise help.

Iran is on a knife-edge, with millions of voters taking to the streets in outrage as evidence mounts that the government may have massively rigged and stolen Thursday’s election. The regime has cracked down brutally on the protesters and is imposing a blackout on Iranian society — shutting down domestic and international media, the internet and even text-messaging.

The voice of Iranians may have been silenced at the polling booth, now the regime is attempting to silence them everywhere else. Facing beatings and gunfire, the opposition is organising mass demonstrations and a general strike. We can’t afford to let the regime dismiss the voice of the people — the truth must be heard.

Avaaz is urgently organising a rigorous “exit poll” of Iranian voters and a media effort to publicise it — working with an international polling firm to do a telephone survey of Iranian citizens to ask how they voted. We urgently need 10,000 Avaaz members to pitch in a small amount each to raise $119,000 in the next 24 hours and give Iranians a powerful new way to be heard — follow this link to view video from the streets of Tehran and support this exit poll to find out the truth:

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/iran_vote_truth/

Public polling in Iran is heavily restricted, and no-one else is mobilizing fast enough to fund an international exit poll. It’s urgent that we pitch in. A telephone poll won’t be 100% accurate, but the difference between opposition and government claims is massive — a rigorous poll can show which claim is remotely near the truth.

Unlike Western organizations, Avaaz’s global network has a strong membership in Iran and across the Middle East. Backed by a respected polling firm, our effort will be harder to dismiss by Iranian conservatives. We’ll send the poll results to the media and help our members in Iran to rapidly and virally spread the news despite the regime’s blackout.

Messages have been flooding in from our Iranian members — from Fariba: “20.000.000 people have lost their votes for peace and human rights. The government wants to use this votes for every thing but PEACE. Avaaz is a Persian word too and means voice — hear our ‘avaaz’”. From Mahmoud: “The government has stolen the vote the people. The people in the street are beaten badly by the police. Now now now do not lose the time”. Stand with Iranians now and help their voices be heard:

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/iran_vote_truth/

This election matters to us all. Iran is a major regional power, and the international community is seeking diplomatic engagement that holds a key to peace in the Middle East. But hawks and extremists on all sides want war instead: a conservative coup in Iran could destroy all our hopes.

The conservative Guardian Council, headed by a key Ahmadinejad ally, is reviewing the vote over the next 9 days — our poll can be ready before they give their verdict, to counter any further rigging and the violent purge that could follow.

There is a real possibility that democracy will prevail. Ultimate power in Iran lies with Ayatollah Khamenei, who may have backed the rigging — but he is hired and fired by the Assembly of Experts, chaired by ex-President Rafsanjani who has condemned vote-fixing. If Rafsanjani and allies can get enough votes on the Assembly this week, they can press to re-open the results, even to remove Khamenei from power. A scientific opinion poll could be a powerful piece of evidence.

In the next 72 hours, the Iranian people will try once again to be heard. Let’s help make sure their voices are not silenced — follow this link to see their courage and donate now to help fund the exit poll:

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/iran_vote_truth/

There are some good media sources: CNN Iran election special, Al Jazeera http://www.aljazeera.net/ or Al Jazeera English version, BBC Middle East page, The Guardian and The Times Online. Robert Fisk has an interesting account of a confrontation between pro- and anti-government demonstrations. It seems the Iranian special forces police kept the peace between the two groups, and the demonstrators had more to fear from the Basiji, who Fisk described as “Islamic Republic’s thug-like militia”.

There also a good post at http://mashable.com/2009/06/14/new-media-iran/ on how to use social media to track events.